Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

钢筋混凝土建筑结构的抗地震破坏倒塌能力评估研究          下载免费PDF全文

汪玉容 《地震工程学报》2018,40(5):919-925

在地震作用下钢筋混凝土建筑结构出现破坏倒塌为地震灾害中的关键,有效评估建筑结构抗地震破坏倒塌能力是建筑结构设计的前提,也是当前建筑结构提高抗震性能与加固的依据。提出变形指标极值、失效判断标准以及钢筋混凝土建筑结构倒塌极限状态判断标准,据此获取倒塌储备系数、倒塌易损性、结构整体超强系数、结构整体延性系数等评估标准。采用Pushover分析法选择相应地震波。依据梁柱线刚比对建筑结构抗倒塌能力的影响,以及柱端弯矩增加系数对建筑结构抗地震破坏倒塌能力的影响,对建筑结构易损性进行分析。结果表明:等跨建筑结构抗地震破坏倒塌能力更强;建筑结构底层是薄弱层,COF值越高,结构越容易倒塌。  相似文献   

基于裂隙尖端放电机制的深部岩体损伤自电特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘静  刘盛东  曹煜 《地球物理学报》2018,61(1):323-330

在大规模深部岩体损伤过程中发生的裂隙尖端放电现象往往引发地下雷电，对该现象发生机理、表现规律的揭示有助于地震、岩爆等的临灾预报.不同于在岩土体中液固耦合界面上发生的自然电场异常机理，在岩土体内部发生的裂隙尖端放电可谓是引发自然电场异常的另一重要微观机制.本文基于现有裂隙尖端放电的研究成果，详细阐述了裂隙尖端放电发生的过程，解释了岩体损伤过程中自然电场异常产生的微观机理，并结合室内实验成果论述了自电位的主要特征；进行了理论推导，认为在大尺度岩体连续损伤过程中，自电位具有含脉冲状波动并整体下降的特征；开展了原位测试，结果证明人工采掘扰动下的深部岩体连续破坏的过程中，自电位在破坏前期缓慢下降，在破坏过程中会出现脉冲状波动，随着破坏程度的加剧整体呈现波动中下降的规律，与理论推导、室内实验结论都相符.对比室内实验和原位测试成果发现，随着研究目标的空间尺度由mm级别扩展到m的级别，自电位波动的幅值也从数十个mV扩展到数百甚至上千mV，故认为在利用自电位波动规律来预测岩体破坏状态时，须受研究对象的空间尺度的约束.此外，在原位测试中发现，自电位对岩体损伤过程的响应较直流电阻率而言具有时域上的超前优势，并对此现象进行了解释.  相似文献   

Modeling RC column flexural failure modes under intensive seismic loading     

Ilias Gkimousis  Vlasis Koumousis 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(9):1942-1962

The aim of this work is to model beam‐column behavior in a computationally effective manner, revealing reliably the overall response of reinforced concrete members subjected to intensive seismic loading. In this respect, plasticity and damage are considered in the predominant longitudinal direction, allowing for fiber finite element modeling, while in addition the effect of inelastic buckling of longitudinal rebars, which becomes essential at later stages of intensive cyclic loading, is incorporated. Α smooth plasticity‐damage model is developed for concrete, accounting for unilateral compressive and tensile behavior, nonlinear unloading and crack closure phenomena. This is used to address concrete core crushing and spalling, which triggers the inelastic buckling of longitudinal rebars. For this reason, a uniaxial local stress‐strain constitutive relation for steel rebars is developed, which is based on a combined nonlinear kinematic and isotropic hardening law. The proposed constitutive model is validated on the basis of existing experimental data and the formulation of the buckling model for a single rebar is developed. The cross section of rebar is discretized into fibers, each one following the derived stress‐strain uniaxial law. The buckling curve is determined analytically, while equilibrium is imposed at the deformed configuration. The proposed models for concrete and rebars are embedded into a properly adjusted fiber beam‐column element of reinforced concrete members and the proposed formulation is verified with existing experimental data under intensive cyclic loading.  相似文献   

基于类柔度差曲率和频率摄动的结构损伤识别          下载免费PDF全文

何容  谭亚可  郭琪璇  何伟 《地震工程学报》2020,42(4):825-832

为提高梁式结构损伤诊断的效率,提出一种基于类柔度差曲率和频率摄动的结构损伤识别方法。首先根据结构振动理论,研究广义柔度矩阵计算公式;再利用模态柔度对结构损伤灵敏性高的优点,改进基于柔度差曲率的损伤定位指标,定义类柔度差曲率LCFC损伤指标,并初步识别损伤;最后基于矩阵摄动进行结构损伤识别结果确认。考虑多种损伤工况,对一简支梁结构进行损伤识别数值模拟验证。结果表明:仅使用一阶模态,建立的类柔度差曲率LCFC指标对梁式结构损伤定位具有良好的诊断效果,且计算工作量小;对于含边界损伤单元的多损伤工况,当损伤程度大于10%时,LCFC指标识别有效;当损伤程度不大于25%时,各工况二阶摄动识别结果精度较高,相对误差较一阶摄动结果明显降低,证明了该方法的实用性、有效性和精确性。  相似文献   

溢油对海洋生态系统内在价值损害的评估——以“塔斯曼海”轮溢油事故为例     

严志宇  孙冰  付红蕊  任杰 《海洋科学》2020,44(4):85-89

作者籍以能值和生态炯分析,将海洋生态内在价值补充到溢油损害评估中,并以"塔斯曼海"轮溢油事故为例,分析了生态系统内在价值损害评估的特点。结果表明溢油生态内在价值损害大于对生态服务价值的损害,前者是后者的6.9倍;能值变化反映对资本积累的损害,生态炯更突出了溢油对初级生产力的生态系统的影响。本评价是现有溢油损害评价的补充,可为彻底、有效环境治理、生态修复提供保障,对海洋开发管理决策和公众环保意识的提高将有积极的影响。  相似文献   

“一带一路”区域可持续发展生态环境遥感监测   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

柳钦火  吴俊君  李丽  俞乐  李静  辛晓洲  贾立  仲波  牛铮  徐新良  孟庆岩  赵静  张海龙  胡光成  郑超磊 《遥感学报》2018,22(4):686-708

2013年9月和10月,习近平主席在出访中亚和东南亚国家期间,先后提出了共建"丝绸之路经济带"和"21世纪海上丝绸之路"(简称"一带一路")的重大倡议。要全面保护"一带一路"区域生态环境,实现2030年可持续发展目标,是一个具有挑战性的问题。遥感技术对生态环境监测与评价发挥着十分重要的作用。本研究利用多尺度、多源遥感数据,对2015年"一带一路"区域的生态环境状况进行监测和分析,旨在提供可持续发展目标生态环境遥感监测的本底。本文选取了几个重要的生态环境方面开展监测与分析,主要包括宏观生态系统结构和植被状况、太阳能资源分布、水资源平衡、主要生态环境限制因素对经济走廊建设的影响、主要城市生态环境质量等。监测区域覆盖亚洲、非洲、欧洲和大洋洲的陆上区域。研究结果为生态环境评价与保护提供了有效的决策依据,有助于"一带一路"建设积极推进。  相似文献   

Evaluation of effectiveness of three fuzzy systems and three texture extraction methods for building damage detection from post-event LiDAR data     

Milad Janalipour 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(12):1241-1268

Building damage maps after disasters can help us to better manage the rescue operations. Researchers have used Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data for extracting the building damage maps. For producing building damage maps from LiDAR data in a rapid manner, it is necessary to understand the effectiveness of features and classifiers. However, there is no comprehensive study on the performance of features and classifiers in identifying damaged areas. In this study, the effectiveness of three texture extraction methods and three fuzzy systems for producing the building damage maps was investigated. In the proposed method, at first, a pre-processing stage was utilized to apply essential processes on post-event LiDAR data. Second, textural features were extracted from the pre-processed LiDAR data. Third, fuzzy inference systems were generated to make a relation between the extracted textural features of buildings and their damage extents. The proposed method was tested across three areas over the 2010 Haiti earthquake. Three building damage maps with overall accuracies of 75.0%, 78.1% and 61.4% were achieved. Based on outcomes, the fuzzy inference systems were stronger than random forest, bagging, boosting and support vector machine classifiers for detecting damaged buildings.  相似文献   

The Digital Belt and Road program in support of regional sustainability     

Huadong Guo  Yubao Qiu  Massimo Menenti  Fang Chen  Paul F. Uhlir 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2018,11(7):657-669

The Belt and Road initiative has a significant focus on infrastructure, trade, and economic development across a vast region, and it also provides significant opportunities for sustainable development. The combined pressure of climate variability, intensified use of resources, and the fragility of ecosystems make it very challenging, however, to achieve future sustainability. To develop the path in a sustainable way, it is important to have a comprehensive understanding of these issues across nations and evaluate them in a scientific and well-informed approach. In this context, the Digital Belt and Road (DBAR) program was initiated as an international venture to share expertise, knowledge, technologies, and data to demonstrate the role of Earth observation science and technology and big Earth data applications to support large-scale development. In this paper, we identify pressing challenges, present the research priorities and foci of the DBAR program, and propose solutions where big Earth data can make significant contributions. This paper calls for further joint actions and collaboration to build a digital silk road in support of sustainable development at national, regional and global levels.  相似文献   

概率密度分布法在“一带一路”地区极端月气温评估和预估中的应用     

齐亚杰  严中伟  钱诚 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(2):151-161

“一带一路”地区人口众多,气候类型复杂,亟待加强区域气候变化风险的认识。文中将该区分成10个区域,基于第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的31个全球模式模拟结果,应用概率密度分布（PDF）方法评估历史阶段（1986—2005年）各模式模拟暖月和冷月气温的能力,挑选并建立较优模式集合,用以预估21世纪中叶（2041—2060年）和21世纪末（2081—2100年）的极端月气温。结果表明,模式对观测中冷月气温距平PDF的模拟水平整体较暖月高。与多模式平均以及中位值相比,较优模式集合方法更适于极端暖/冷月气温的评估。在中等排放RCP4.5情景下,与低纬度地区相比,较优模式模拟中高纬地区未来极端暖/冷月气温的增温幅度的不确定性范围较大。21世纪中叶和21世纪末较优模式模拟的极端暖月气温在地中海增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。对较优模式集合预估的极端冷月气温而言,无论是21世纪中叶还是世纪末,北欧增幅整体最大,东南亚增幅整体最小。  相似文献